As the Green Bay Packers inconsistent season continues, Packers fans are trying to stay optimistic about the second half of the campaign. Following a 20-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams, there is a sense of more optimism at 1265 Lombardi Avenue.
Is there reason to be optimistic, or did we just witness a mirage against a team led by journeyman backup Brett Rypien? It probably depends on which position group you are examining, and that goes for the season as a whole.
It’s important to remain realistic about this team. Entering the 2023-24 season, the Packers were not expected to be a playoff team or compete for an NFC North title. In their first season without Aaron Rodgers, a 3-5 start through eight games is roughly about where they were expected to be in Week 10.
From our early season observations, we are confident that growth will be evident in the second half of the year. With that in mind, there are three Packers’ futures bets that you should consider locking in now before the odds shift.
Packers Regular Season Win Total
After a 3-5 start to the season, NFL betting sites have the Packers finishing with approximately seven wins. At -155 odds, the Packers have an implied probability of 60.8 percent to notch fewer than seven wins.
That isn’t the most optimistic take from oddsmakers, but we believe there is betting value on the Packers to win more than seven games. Given their schedule from Week 10 to the end of the season, there is reason to feel good about this wager.
Over their next nine games, the Packers have several winnable games on the schedule. Besides the Chiefs, there isn’t a powerhouse remaining on their schedule in 2023-24. Their toughest opponents are the Chiefs, Chargers, and Lions.
The Packers have the luxury of not having to go on the road and welcoming the Chargers and Chiefs to Lambeau Field. There is certainly a chance of an upset in one of those two games. If the defense continues to play like they have been, it can’t be ruled out.
Following tough matchups against the Lions and Chiefs, the Packers end the season versus the Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, Vikings, and Bears.
At a minimum, the Packers should be favored over the Giants, Panthers, and Bears. The Bucs traveling to Lambeau in December to play in the cold bodes well for the Packers, too.
In Week 1, the Packers had a regular season win total of 7.5 (-135). The season has played out as oddsmakers expected it to for the Packers. Currently, we can bet on the Packers to eclipse the 7.5-win total at +125 odds.
If the Packers win more than seven games, you can make $125 on a $100 wager. Betting on the win total to go Over is worth a shot at these odds.
NFC North Title
|Green Bay Packers||+2800|
At -1100 odds, the Lions are heavily favored to win the NFC North. This represents an implied probability of winning the NFC North of 91.7 percent.
In early September, the Packers had the third-best odds to win the division at +375. The Vikings were +275, while the Lions were the favorites at +135 to win the NFC North. Through Week 9, the Packers remain the third choice to win the division title.
The Lions are the obvious choice to win the NFC North. There is no arguing that they are the likeliest team to prevail. That said, the Packers have a faint pulse that hasn’t flat lined yet.
The uncertain QB situation in Minnesota doesn’t evoke much confidence. Kirk Cousins is sidelined for the year with a torn Achilles tendon. Sure, Joshua Dobbs impressed in his first appearance as a Viking against the Falcons, but can he keep the Vikings’ offense afloat through Week 18?
In the face of adversity, which includes an injury to star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, the Vikings are playing better than expected. Nevertheless, without Cousins, their season could take a turn for the worse.
As for the Lions, they are cruising to their first-ever NFC North title. However, what if the Lions’ secondary loses a couple more bodies? They are already dealing with a rash of injuries to their secondary.
Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley are on the IR with season-ending injuries. Let’s assume that safety Tracy Walker or Kerby Joseph goes down with an injury. Suddenly, the Lions are in a difficult spot.
And, while the Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, they don’t have the most depth. If right tackle Penei Sewell were to go on the IR, the Lions’ offensive line isn’t so stout.
At +2800 odds, the Packers have an implied probability of winning the NFC North of just 3.4 percent. It’s unlikely to happen, but a flier on the Packers at +2800 presents some value.
Rashan Gary Defensive Player of the Year
For our third Packers’ futures bet, let’s analyze the latest 2023-24 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds. Through all the ups and downs over the first half of the season, there is one Packer who stands out from the rest of the team – Rashan Gary.
If the Packers were a contender, Gary would be receiving more mainstream attention from the media. However, since the Packers are 3-5, the 277-pound linebacker doesn’t have the spotlight often.
Gary has recorded ten solo tackles, eight assists, two stuffs, and 4.5 sacks in seven games. Additionally, Gary has five tackles for a loss and 15 QB pressures in the 2023 campaign.
He has accomplished this while slowly working back onto the field and getting more reps earlier in the year. On November 8, 2022, Gary tore his ACL against the Lions. As Gary continues to get more comfortable, his numbers will undoubtedly grow.
At +10000 to win the Defensive Player of the Year, Gary does not have the most respect among oddsmakers. Convincing voters to pick Gary over Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, or T.J. Watt will be difficult. Currently, those three are co-favorites to win the DPOY at +200.
However, as a Packers fan wanting to make a long-shot wager, Gary deserves consideration at these staggering odds.