Can Tom Brady and the Buccaneers Repeat in 2021?

    The short answer to the titular questions is yes. If there is anyone who can lead a team to consecutive Super Bowl victories, it’s Tom Brady. After all, he has done it before; more than once …

    However, that is a blanket statement. So, let’s look at odds from some of the best gambling sites in Virginia to see what the oddsmakers think. Then compare it against their Super Bowl odds, schedule, projected season wins, and of course, post-free-agency evaluations.

    Table of Contents

    2021 Strength of Schedule

    The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have it relatively easy this year. That is if you believe the broken way the league adds up the strength of schedule. If you go by the traditional method, Brady and the Buccs have the 29th easiest strength of schedule. As far as division rivals are concerned, the ATL Falcons have an even easier schedule than the Buccs. But the Carolina Panthers and NOLA Saints have more demanding schedules, if only slightly. 

    However, I like to look at SOS by season wins projections for each team on the schedule. Why? Because win percentage last year doesn’t mean squat if you’re projected to be a losing team this season. 

    Using this methodology, the Raiders once again have one of the most demanding schedules. And luckily for the Buccs, they still fall into the top-5 weakest schedules. Plus, it bodes even better for them to have an easier time winning the division because the Saints have a schedule with a projected 147.5 wins, placing them in the top-10 toughest schedules in 2021. Carolina and Atlanta are middle of the road, 143.5 and 144.5 respectively. However, I don’t expect either of those teams to be more than middling in 2021 anyhow. 

    Post-Free-Agency

    I have to admit that the Kansas City Chiefs got tougher. Patrick Mahomes benefited from the moves made so far. That said, I’d still place post-free-agency moves ranking with KC at No. 1 and Tampa Bay at No.2. So, it’s highly likely that we see a Super Bowl rematch in early 2022. The Chiefs are another team that sits smack-dab in the middle of the SOS based on wins projections. They would have the 15th most challenging schedule—or 17th easiest. 

    But which other teams pose a threat? 

    Well, the Packers—if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t head to Denver— the Buffalo Bills, the Los Angeles Rams, and the Baltimore Ravens. Each of these teams can upset either the Cheifs or the Buccs in the playoffs. Buffalo in particular, could challenge KC for King of the Hill in the AFC.

    The Betting Odds and their Implied Probability

    Unsurprisingly, the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites to win it all in 2022’s big game. That said, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are right behind them on the odds boards. 

    Here are the top ten odds:

    1. Chiefs +525
    2. Buccaneers +650
    3. Bills +1300
    4. Ravens +1400
    5. Rams +1400
    6. 49ers +1400
    7. Packers +1600
    8. Browns +1800
    9. Broncos +2000
    10. Colts +2500

    If we convert the odds into fractions and use that to find probability, the Kansas City Chiefs top the boards with a 16% chance to win the Super Bowl in 2022. However, the Buccaneers are sitting at 13.3%. However, I think the competition in the AFC is tougher this year, in other words, the Buccs have a better chance of heading into the Super Bowl less banged up. This becomes more of a factor when we consider that the Buccaneers have a much easier schedule —theoretically—than the KC Cheifs.

    Tampa Bay 2021 Conclusion

    So, can the Buccaneers repeat as Super Bowl champs? Yes. But will they? Who knows … There are just too many things that can happen throughout the season in a sport as brutally competitive as NFL Football. We may see two entirely different teams in the Title game next February; perhaps it’s the Bills and Rams? That said, given the talent, projections, and schedule, the Buccs do have the clearest path to the finish line this season, so I do expect them to at least play in the NFC Championship game.

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